未来奢侈品行业的六大预测

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>法国巴黎——全世界正在经历自第二次世界大战以来最具破坏性的危机之一。对大多数人来说，它的影响将超过911、非典和次贷危机影响的总和。在之前的危机期间，旅游和酒店业遭受了25%的损失。但这次的危机造成了90%。空中旅客流量下降了90%以上，短期内不会回来，酒店像机场一样空无一人……严重依赖海外消费者的奢侈品商店也是如此，因为仅中国游客就占据了整个奢侈品市场的27%。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>可以肯定的是，2020年将是奢侈品行业多灾多难的一年，预计整体销量将下降35%，因为疫情扰乱了供应和需求。在供应方面，个人奢侈品的两个主要制造国——意大利和法国——曾长期处于封锁状态，直到最近才有所松动。在需求方面，不再有随心所欲的消费，美国、欧洲、日本和韩国由于中国游客不再前来购物而受到双重打击。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>奢侈品行业本质上是周期性的：一旦危机的迹象开始显现，奢侈品行业就会迅速放缓。相反，当经济复苏的早期迹象出现时，它就会再次出现并带来乐观情绪。前几次危机后出现的反弹曲线会再次出现吗？尽管有迹象表明广州Hermès门店出现了“报复性消费”，但我们对此表示怀疑。相反，我们可能看到的是现有疫情冲击的加剧，尽管如此这仍可能有助于经济复苏。

<h2 label="一级标题" style="margin: 30px 0px 14px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 20px; line-height: 28px; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; position: relative; color: rgb(66, 133, 244); text-align: justify;”>1. 一条名叫中国的大道

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>行业的反弹将来自中国。中国人天生乐观，对自己的未来充满信心。因此，这个市场将首先启动。此外，政府明确表示要将国人的奢侈品消费带回国内，这会促使他们在大陆的奢侈品消费比例从25%提高到50%。随着旅游业的急剧下滑，这应该更容易实现，大多数中国主要的奢侈品零售商似乎都在坚持它们的年度销售目标。即使早期的“报复性消费”浪潮不会持续，国内市场的扩张也将有所助益，迫使各品牌调整其在华战略，并尽快将未售出的库存转移到中国大陆。

<h2 label="一级标题" style="margin: 30px 0px 14px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 20px; line-height: 28px; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; position: relative; color: rgb(66, 133, 244); text-align: justify;”>2. 成熟市场变得乏力

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>对于奢侈品最成熟的市场——欧洲、日本和美国——来说，疫情可能会在一段时间内继续肆虐，抑制消费者对非必需品的需求。悲观主义不会导致放纵式的消费。只要人们的不安全感或恐惧程度依然高启，那么，奢侈品的反弹将非常缓慢，并加速向更合理的奢侈品消费的转变。在这些市场中，我们可以预计，在一段时间内，消费者支出会有所下降。这并不是对奢侈品的好预测，根植于极简主义、低调或古典手工艺的品牌可能表现得更好。

<h2 label="一级标题" style="margin: 30px 0px 14px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 20px; line-height: 28px; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; position: relative; color: rgb(66, 133, 244); text-align: justify;”>3. 非渠道策略

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>正如企业已经成功地适应了疫情带来的远程工作一样，消费者也可能改变他们的渠道习惯，在购物时使用电商平台。事实上，如果经理们不再需要环游世界去参加会议，为什么还要期望消费者回到商店呢？或者你也可以举出类似逻辑的其他例子。目前疫情的后续影响并不十分明朗。在中国，奢侈品电商尚未蓬勃发展，但在线营销活动已被证明前所未有地重要，并且有助于促使消费者重返实体店。与以往任何时候相比，非渠道方式将更为关键：商店仍将是必不可少的，但数字化对于采购流程将变得更为重要，此外，商店、电商、社交媒体和其它沟通渠道之间的组织孤岛将消失。

<h2 label="一级标题" style="margin: 30px 0px 14px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 20px; line-height: 28px; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; position: relative; color: rgb(66, 133, 244); text-align: justify;”>4. 直接面向消费者，否则就会失败

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>对于市场的反弹预测因分销网络的不同而有所不同。过度依赖批发渠道的品牌将不得不争取回到危机前的销售水平。即使有一些新奇的方式，但批发渠道依然可能让消费者重燃的购物欲望熄灭。在上次经济衰退期间，那些真正享受和管理自己分销渠道的奢侈品牌可以控制自己的价格，避免回扣的诱惑。此外，它们还控制着大量的消费者数据，能够更好地吸引本地顾客，这比什么都要宝贵。这些品牌的模式仍将具有长期价值。

<h2 label="一级标题" style="margin: 30px 0px 14px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 20px; line-height: 28px; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; position: relative; color: rgb(66, 133, 244); text-align: justify;”>5. 迈向可持续发展

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>人类处于危机边缘，奢侈品要采取更加道德的态度，肯定会成为反弹的一部分。多年来，可持续性和奢侈品一直在打情骂俏。奢侈品融合以价值观为基础的故事：制造持久的产品、拯救濒危的工艺、促进性别平等……那些制定了明确可持续发展战略的品牌，在危机平息后，将更有能力赢得消费者的青睐。下一步将是找到正确的方式与客户分享这些策略，因为可持续性仍然没有被整合到“销售仪式”里。

<h2 label="一级标题" style="margin: 30px 0px 14px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 20px; line-height: 28px; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; position: relative; color: rgb(66, 133, 244); text-align: justify;”>6. 重新思考“为什么”

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>在长期经济增长的背景下，奢侈品行业的成功依赖于自我推销等自恋行为，以及在社交网络上展示自己的成功，与此同时，一些国家一直未能履行其最基本的职能：保护人民。现在，在数周的禁闭和集体困顿中，这些社会动机看起来微弱和无关紧要。在后疫情时代，奢侈品的亲密价值观可能会比以往任何时候都更加重要。也许，正如意大利作家兰佩杜萨在《豹》中写道：“如果我们想保持原样，就必须先改变。”

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>本文作者Jean-Noël Kapferer是一位社会学家，法国高等经济与商业研究学院（Inseec U）的研究员，也是《The Luxury Strategy》的合著者。Jean Révis是MAD的联合创始人兼首席执行官，MAD是一家总部位于巴黎的战略咨询公司，专注于奢侈品行业。