奢侈品的噩梦，第一季度在中国市场销售额或大跌40%

 中国市场的任何风吹草动，都牵动着奢侈品全球市场格局。 <p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>据时尚商业快讯，欧洲投资银行日前预计，随着新冠肺炎疫情的扩散，全球奢侈品销售额将在第一季度平均下降8%，其中被视为核心动力的中国市场将大跌40%。道琼斯分析师Pierre Brian早前在一份报告中指出，近年来把鸡蛋都放到中国这个篮子里的奢侈品牌们业绩或出现断崖式下滑。 

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>包括Burberry，Ralph Lauren，Coach母公司Tapestry集团和Michael Kors母公司Capri集团的奢侈品公司已经对疫情影响发出了预告，暂时关闭近50%的中国内地门店，销售损失或高达数千万美元。 位于广州太古汇的Dior、爱马仕等奢侈品牌日前将营业时间更新为每日中午12点到下午6点，比此前的上午11点至晚上8点短了3个小时。 

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>由意大利奢侈品公司协会Altagamma联合波士顿咨询集团和投资公司Bernstein对28位CEO和CFO进行的调查估计，今年该行业的销售额可能损失300亿欧元至400亿欧元至3090亿欧元。这意味着行业收入将下降约15％，亏损约100亿欧元。 

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>调查还估测，原定运往中国的多达1000万至1500万件产品都可能无法售出，迫使公司将产品转移到其他地区市场。奢侈羽绒品牌Moncler在最近一次与投资者电话会议上表示，该公司已将原定发往大中华地区的货品转至欧洲等市场。分析师Bryan Garnier表示，Moncler中国内地仍在营业的门店销售额跌幅达80%。 

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>有分析认为，一旦情况恢复正常，手表和手袋等某些品类可能会弥补大部分业务损失。但是由于天气变化，Moncler这类销售季节性单品的品牌可能会永久错失当季销售，并且需要为新季节的产品腾出空间。 

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>然而在刚刚过去的周末之后，奢侈品公司需要担心的已不仅仅是中国市场。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>中国以外的冠状病毒病例激增的新闻加剧了人们对全球经济长期放缓的担忧，全球投资者迅速逃离股市，涌入包括政府债券和黄金在内的避险资产，市场对新冠病毒将扰乱全球经济的担忧日益加剧。 

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>虽然年初以来美国股市一直保持弹性，但昨日道琼斯指数突然下跌超过1000点，创下2018年2月以来的最大点数和百分比跌幅。标准普尔500指数下跌3.3%，也是两年来最大跌幅。随着周一的下跌，标准普尔500指数和道琼斯指数都抹去了其在2020年的全部涨幅，旅游、医疗保险和科技股损失惨重。 

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>意大利、伊朗和韩国的情况正在引发全球担忧。其中，意大利是亚洲以外受影响最严重的国家，正在进行中的米兰时装周首当其冲受到冲击。除了中国买手、媒体和博主集体缺席时装周，昨日Giorgio Armani两场2020秋冬现场大秀也被临时取消，改为无观众秀场。米兰歌剧院La Scala则取消了演出，原定于周二结束的威尼斯嘉年华也被提前叫停。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>受此影响，意大利富时MIB指数于周一扩大跌幅至4.8%，创2016年6月以来的最大盘中跌幅，主要受新冠肺炎病毒在全球的加速扩散可能导致经济衰退影响，其中Moncler、Tod’s和Salvatore Ferragamo等意大利奢侈品牌股票分别大跌5.63%、10.76%和9.37%，市值分别为88亿、10.4亿和24亿欧元。颇受资本市场追捧的Moncler今年以来累计下跌12.9%。 

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>法国财长勒梅尔周日在G20接受采访时称，新型冠状病毒疫情爆发对法国旅游业造成了冲击，自今年以来游客比预期少了约30%到40%，将对法国经济产生重大影响。法国是全球游客最多的国家之一，据法国欧洲和外交事务部统计，2018年共有8940万游客前往法国旅游，旅游业占法国GDP的近8%。勒梅尔补充道，法国每年接待约270万名中国内地游客，但2020年的状况将发生很大改变。 

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>中国游客的骤减直接冲击了欧洲市场的旅游消费。更令人担忧的是，随着欧洲和日韩情形进一步严峻，这些市场的本土消费也开始受到影响，消费回归常态的拐点需要时间。在一系列不确定性面前，即将到来的巴黎时装周将面临何种状况，目前也难以评估。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>据时尚商业快讯监测，LVMH股价昨日大跌5.53%，今年累计下跌11.8%。开云集团昨日大跌6.04%，今年累计下跌14.5%。爱马仕昨日下跌3.56%，今年累计下跌3.39%。历峰集团昨日下跌2.88%，今年以来下跌11%。 

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>不过也有一些迹象表明，奢侈品消费热情并未被完全压抑。据杭州网消息，因新冠肺炎疫情停业的杭州大厦购物城已于上周重新开业，尽管当日营业时间缩短为中午12点到下午5点，但5个小时内全店销售额突破1100万元，超过上年同期全天从早10点到晚上10点营业12小时的销售额，其中最受关注的店铺包括快时尚品牌Zara、部分美妆护肤品牌以及餐厅。 

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>贝恩咨询在最新一份关于新冠肺炎疫情对全球经济影响的报告中认为，包括服装、化妆品、奢侈品等可选消费领域可能由于市民出行恢复后的报复性消费而迅速回弹，并强调为更好地应对疫情带来的冲击，建议企业停止等待观望，应在当下及时采取行动，制定疫情中及结束后的目标及计划，并快速实施。 

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>在疫情期限可能继续延长的前提下，奢侈品业务或在2021年初之前都无法恢复正常。但部分奢侈品牌不会坐以待毙，加速布局线上市场和数字创新。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>在一场大面积无差别的危机之下，不同个体的“免疫力”决定了最终的结果。据微信公众号LADYMAX独家数据，Louis Vuitton中国市场依然实现高速增长，今年情人节期间线上渠道销售额较去年同期高出双倍。当很多品牌放弃第一季度时，Louis Vuitton的业绩数据让奢侈品行业吃下了一粒定心丸。品牌透露，疫情期间能够保证业绩主要得益于品牌快速反应，实现全渠道的联动。 

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>更重要的是，若即将来临的是一场不局限于中国市场的全球考验，奢侈品牌也需在欧洲大本营复制其在中国市场较为先锋的数字化策略，从而弥补销售损失。

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 26px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-family: “PingFang SC”, “Lantinghei SC”, “Helvetica Neue”, Helvetica, Arial, “Microsoft YaHei”, 微软雅黑, STHeitiSC-Light, simsun, 宋体, “WenQuanYi Zen Hei”, “WenQuanYi Micro Hei”, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;”>接受Altagamma采访的奢侈品业高管对行业长期前景仍然持乐观态度，多数人预计明年会实现反弹，并达到其疫情发生前的销售目标。